Biased At Initialization
In “Thinking, Fast and Slow“, Daniel Kahneman asserts:
The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way. You like or dislike people long before you know much about them; you trust or distrust strangers without knowing why; you feel that an enterprise is bound to succeed without analyzing it. Whether you state them or not, you often have answers to questions that you do not completely understand, relying on evidence that you can neither explain nor defend.
Sheesh. So much for initializing the “Bozo Bit” to the unjudgmental MBAB state and then consciously flippin’ it to one state or the other as evidence mounts over time. According to Dr. Dan, because of the lizard-like, “fast thinking” subsystem in our (bozo) brains, the Bozo Bit is biased at initialization to either IAB or INAB.
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According to quantum Bozon dynamics, he may or may not be a Bozo until he is actually observed being a Bozo. Also, you can neither know how fast the Bozo is going to screw up if you know where he is going to screw up or vice versa.