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Pick Your Path


Make a measurement, one measurement, of any personal metric you might fancy… right now. Next, plot your sample point on a graph where time is the independent variable on the x-axis:

One Sample

Next, even though you most likely have no prior measurements to plot, reflect on the path that got you to “now“. You’re likely to concoct a smooth, logical, linear narrative like this:

YourStory

However, because of our propensity to be, as Nassim Taleb says, easily “fooled by randomness“, you’re most likely to have traveled one of the ragged, noisy paths plotted on this graph:

ManyPaths

Because of the malady of linear-think, you’re most likely to envision the future as a continued journey on the smooth, forward projection of your made-up narrative. Good luck with that.

FuturePath

 

  1. August 8, 2014 at 1:12 am

    I saw something similar on Facebook the other day. If I can find it again I will send it to you 🙂

  2. August 8, 2014 at 3:39 am

    This is it – not sure if the link is complete though!

    • August 8, 2014 at 4:29 am

      That is awesome. The graphic on that page blows this post away. Thanks for the link.

      • August 8, 2014 at 8:30 am

        Glad you liked it 🙂

  3. August 8, 2014 at 6:56 am

    Reblogged this on thinkpurpose and commented:
    Binary Comparisons, mistaking noise for signal and the futility of silly straight lines on graphs.
    A vg blog post from Bulldozer.

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